Trump's inflation claims versus the CPI data (2025-2026) Case Trump said in Sept. 2025 that the US had "no inflation," which PolitiFact rated False, and on Oct. 3, 2026 he told a rally he knows more about inflation than anyone. Federal CPI data show inflation at 2.9% in Aug. 2025, rising to 4.2% in May 2026, and 3.4% in Aug. 2026, with energy prices driving much of the rise. The claims On Sept. 19, 2025 Trump said the US had "no inflation." PolitiFact rated it False on Sept. 24, 2025, citing August CPI of 2.9% year over year against the Fed's roughly 2% target, and noting inflation had risen for four straight months. At an Ohio rally on Oct. 3, 2026 he said: "I know more about inflation. I know more about everything than anybody in this room, anybody anywhere in the world." It is at 1:54 in YouTube's transcript. What the CPI shows Annual CPI inflation was 2.4% in January and February 2026, then 3.3% in March, 3.8% in April and a peak of 4.2% in May before easing to 3.5% in June and 3.4% in both July and August. The August 2026 report (released Sept. 11) put headline inflation at 3.4%, in line with forecasts, with energy prices, especially gasoline and fuel oil, driving much of the monthly increase. Core inflation (excluding food and energy) slowed to 2.4% in August 2026, the lowest since March 2021. The March-May 2026 rise coincides with the oil-price spike during the Iran war, which Himes and other sources tie to household costs; the CPI sources above do not themselves assign a cause beyond energy prices. The BLS's August 2026 release confirms the 3.4% headline and 2.4% core figures, and reports the energy index up 16.3% over the 12 months ending August. Perspectives Expert view — PolitiFact Rated Trump's September 2025 claim that the US had "no inflation" False, because consumer prices were still rising about 2.9% a year, above the Fed's 2% price-stability goal. Research notes Method: monthly figures come from the BLS CPI series as tabulated by usinflationcalculator.com and Trading Economics; the BLS tables themselves are not yet attached. Open leads: the BLS primary release, the Sept. 2026 CPI due Oct. 14, a PolitiFact check of the 'almost no inflation' wording, and a comparison with the 2021-22 peak. Note The administration points to core inflation at 2.4%, while headline inflation stays above the Fed's 2% target. Sources [1] PolitiFact — "no inflation" fact-check (https://www.politifact.com/factchecks/2025/sep/24/donald-trump/no-inflation-consumer-index-prices/) · 2025-09-24 [2] US Inflation Calculator — monthly CPI table (BLS data) (https://www.usinflationcalculator.com/inflation/current-inflation-rates/) [3] Trading Economics — US CPI, August 2026 (https://tradingeconomics.com/united-states/inflation-cpi/news/583187) · 2026-09-11 [4] Video of Trump's Ohio rally, Oct. 3, 2026 (YouTube) (https://youtu.be/D9IpEhA49-s) · 2026-10-03 [5] Bureau of Labor Statistics — Consumer Price Index, August 2026 (https://www.bls.gov/news.release/cpi.nr0.htm) · 2026-09-11 Connections Related — Himes' Sept. 2, 2026 House Financial Services speech: tariffs, deficits, labor, the Iran war and consumer sentiment Himes' speech and this entry both concern prices and the cost of living in 2026. Related — Iran war oil shock: record oil profits, higher prices for everyone else Energy prices drove much of the 2026 CPI rise. Same context — Treasury yields, the Sept. 2026 buyback expansion and the deficit Inflation and Treasury yields moved together in 2026, with oil prices a shared factor in both.