Suspiciously timed trades before Trump's Iran and tariff announcements, and active trading in accounts in his name (2025-2026) Case Before several of Trump's market-moving announcements, large oil and stock-futures bets were placed minutes or hours earlier: more than $2.6 billion across at least four oil trades around his Iran announcements in March and April 2026, according to ABC News, which reported that the DOJ and CFTC are examining them. Separately, ethics filings show thousands of stock trades in accounts in his name, including 327 purchases the day before his April 2025 tariff pause. The traders behind the oil bets have not been publicly identified, the Trump Organization says outside managers make every trade in his accounts, and no one has been charged. Oil and stock-futures trades before Trump's Iran announcements (March-April 2026) March 23, 2026: Trump posted on Truth Social shortly after 7 a.m. that talks with Iran were productive and that he was pausing planned strikes on Iran's energy infrastructure. According to Bloomberg, as cited by TIME, contracts covering at least six million barrels of Brent and WTI crude were sold within two minutes starting at 6:49 a.m., against an average of 700,000 barrels in the same window over the previous five trading days. NPR reported, citing Bloomberg, that the oil trades were worth an estimated $580 million and that stock futures spiked in the opposite direction at the same moment. After the post, oil fell sharply: Fortune reports Brent dropped nearly 11% and stocks rose. April 7, 2026: in the hours before Trump announced a two-week ceasefire with Iran, which sent oil down about 15%, traders placed roughly a $950 million bet on falling oil prices, according to Sens. Warren and Whitehouse. TIME reports that at least 50 newly created Polymarket accounts placed substantial ceasefire bets shortly before the announcement, earning hundreds of thousands of dollars. ABC News reported on May 7 that the DOJ and the CFTC are examining at least four oil trades totaling more than $2.6 billion, including more than $500 million on March 23 and $760 million on April 17, 20 minutes before Iran's foreign minister posted that the Strait of Hormuz was open. German news agency dpa, summarizing ABC and NBC, lists April 7 (about $960 million) and April 21 ($430 million, 15 minutes before Trump announced an extended ceasefire). Who placed these trades is not public. ABC notes the market data it obtained does not identify the traders and does not prove anyone traded on inside information; NPR said it is not known that the trader was linked to the Trump administration; TIME reports there has been no evidence of leaks or that White House employees profited from insider trading. Lawmaker requests, investigations and the White House response Rep. Ritchie Torres (D-N.Y.) asked the SEC and CFTC on April 8 to open a formal investigation, saying the March 23 trading may be "one of the largest instances of insider trading in history." On April 9, Sens. Elizabeth Warren and Sheldon Whitehouse asked CFTC Chairman Michael Selig to investigate the March 23 and April 7 trades, calling well-timed trades ahead of administration decisions a recurring concern across oil futures, equity options and prediction markets. After reports that the CFTC would investigate, Warren said the CFTC and SEC should investigate any insider trading by Trump administration officials and brief Congress and the public. Per ABC (May 7), the DOJ and CFTC are now examining the trades; neither agency commented. The White House Management Office reportedly emailed staff on March 24 warning against placing trades or bets using confidential information, according to the Wall Street Journal as reported by TIME. White House spokesperson Davis Ingle said any implication that administration officials are engaged in such activity without evidence is "baseless and irresponsible reporting." As of this entry (Oct. 4, 2026), no charges and no public identification of who placed the oil trades turned up in the coverage reviewed. Trades in accounts in Trump's name (ethics filings) Office of Government Ethics filings for January through March 2026 show 3,642 transactions with a cumulative value of $220 million to $750 million, about 60 trades a day, per Fortune. Yahoo Finance reports 2,345 purchases and 1,296 sales, mostly of individual stocks, in a filing Trump signed on May 8. Reuters notes the forms list values in broad ranges and do not show prices, profits or whether assets were bought directly or through managed accounts, and that the president's assets are held in a trust controlled by his children. March 23, 2026, the day of the Truth Social post: according to the filing, the account bought oil and gas stocks (Phillips 66, Exxon Mobil, Chevron) and defense stocks (Lockheed Martin, General Dynamics). Fortune's account does not say at what time of day these purchases were made. The same filing shows the account also moving toward safe assets as the war began: Newmont (gold miner) on March 2, a Treasury ETF on March 4, a gold trust on March 5, and later cash. Fortune describes this as hedging the war Trump was publicly saying would end soon. The Trump Organization says the accounts are run by third-party institutions with sole and exclusive authority over every investment decision, through automated processes, and that neither Trump, his family nor the company has any role. White House spokesperson Davis Ingle told Fortune the assets are in a trust managed by Trump's children and that there are no conflicts of interest; asked about the tension between the two statements, he told Fortune to defer to the Trump Organization. Fortune notes nothing is inherently illegal about a sitting president holding stocks, since the criminal conflict-of-interest law exempts the president, but that for more than half a century presidents have used blind trusts, index funds or liquidation. Former White House ethics counsel Richard Painter told Fortune he does not believe any president has traded in the stock market. April 8, 2025: Trump's accounts made 327 stock purchases worth as much as $12.8 million, including Apple, Microsoft, Nvidia, Amazon and Alphabet, the day before he announced a 90-day tariff pause on April 9. Apple rose about 15% and Nvidia about 19% on April 9. On the morning of April 9, before markets opened, Trump posted on Truth Social that it was "a great time to buy," and at 1:18 p.m. he announced the pause. Federal rules require disclosure of securities transactions over $1,000 within 45 days; Trump filed no such reports covering the April 2025 trades, which surfaced in a 927-page annual disclosure filed in late June 2026, more than 14 months later. Palantir: the Q1 2026 filing shows at least seven purchases in March totaling up to $530,000; weeks later Trump endorsed Palantir on Truth Social by its ticker symbol, which Yahoo Finance describes as a first for a sitting president. What the sources do and do not establish The sources document the timing of large trades before announcements, but they do not identify who placed the oil and futures trades and none ties them to Trump, his family or White House staff. The ethics filings document thousands of trades in accounts in Trump's name, but they do not show who directed them; the Trump Organization says outside managers did, and the filings give ranges rather than prices or profits. No charges have been reported in connection with the oil trades, and the sources report no finding that the trades in Trump's accounts were illegal. Perspectives Official position — White House (spokesperson Davis Ingle) The White House says Trump wants a strong stock market for everyone and that government officials should be barred from using nonpublic information for financial gain. It says federal employees are already subject to ethics rules, and that any implication administration officials are trading on such information without evidence is baseless and irresponsible. On Trump's own holdings, it says his assets are in a trust managed by his children and there are no conflicts of interest. Defender — Trump Organization spokesperson President Trump's investment holdings are kept in fully discretionary accounts run by independent third-party financial institutions that have sole and exclusive authority over investment decisions. Trades are executed through automated processes, and neither Trump, his family nor the Trump Organization plays any role in choosing or approving specific investments or gets advance notice of trades. Critic — Rep. Ritchie Torres (D-N.Y.) Torres argues that a massive, unhedged trade placed 15 minutes before a market-moving presidential announcement has one plausible explanation, an insider trader, and that the March 23 trading may be among the largest instances of insider trading in history. He has urged the SEC and CFTC to investigate and obtain beneficial-ownership records for the accounts involved. Critic — Sen. Elizabeth Warren (D-Mass.) Warren says the suspicious oil trades look like insiders rigging the market and calls the administration corrupt. She says the CFTC probe is a start and that the CFTC and SEC should investigate anything that looks like insider trading by administration officials and tell Congress and the public how they will hold wrongdoers accountable. Editorial read — The Author (site author), thesis I think the pattern points to people around Trump profiting alongside him from advance knowledge of his announcements, and I do not expect the current Justice Department to pursue it. This is an interpretation. The sourced record shows suspiciously timed oil and futures trades and thousands of trades in accounts in his name, but it does not show who placed the oil bets or who directed the trades in his accounts, and no ruling or charge exists. Research notes Open leads: (1) original CNBC and NBC News reporting on the April 8, 2025 purchases, to replace the secondary links above; (2) Popular Info reporting that purchases in Dell, Thermo Fisher and Micron coincided with Trump praising those companies, not yet checked against the OGE filings; (3) prediction-market links (Polymarket, Kalshi) and Donald Trump Jr.'s ties to them, reported by the Daily Beast, not yet verified; (4) any subpoenas, charges or findings from the DOJ and CFTC probes after May 2026; (5) the Financial Times estimate of $580 million notional on March 23, cited second-hand. Source note: Sludge is an advocacy-journalism outlet; its figures match reporting by CNBC and NBC News as summarized elsewhere. Note The White House calls any suggestion of insider trading by officials baseless and irresponsible, and the Trump Organization says third-party managers have sole authority over trades in his accounts; the identities behind the oil bets are not public and no charges have been reported. Sources [1] CBS News — Oil trades surged just before Trump's post on Iran talks. Some experts are suspicious. (https://www.cbsnews.com/news/insider-trading-oil-futures-trump-iran-post/) · 2026-03-24 [2] NPR — Trades made before Trump delayed plans to attack Iran raise insider trading concerns (https://www.npr.org/2026/03/26/nx-s1-5759311/trades-made-before-trump-delayed-plans-to-attack-iran-raise-insider-trading-concerns) · 2026-03-26 [3] TIME — White House Reportedly Warns Staff Against Insider Trading As Lawmakers Raise Concerns (https://time.com/article/2026/04/10/white-house-oil-prediction-markets-polymarket-bets-insider-trading-war/) · 2026-04-10 [4] Sens. Warren and Whitehouse — letter to CFTC Chairman Selig on suspicious oil trades (PDF) (https://www.banking.senate.gov/imo/media/doc/letter_to_cftc_on_oil_futures_trading.pdf) · 2026-04-09 [5] Sen. Warren — statement on CFTC probe into suspicious oil trades (https://www.banking.senate.gov/newsroom/minority/warren-statement-on-cftc-probe-into-suspicious-oil-trades) · 2026-04 [6] CNBC — Rep. Ritchie Torres calls for probe into futures trades placed ahead of March pause on Iran hostilities (https://www.cnbc.com/2026/04/08/iran-ceasefire-futures-markets-ritchie-torrres.html) · 2026-04-08 [7] ABC News — DOJ probing $2.6 billion in oil trades related to Iran war, sources say (https://abc7ny.com/post/doj-probing-26-billion-oil-trades-related-iran-war-sources-say/19057551/) · 2026-05-07 [8] dpa via bluewin — US Department of Justice apparently investigating possible insider trading in the Iran war (https://www.bluewin.ch/en/news/international/us-department-of-justice-apparently-investigating-possible-insider-trading-in-the-iran-war-3224279.html) · 2026-05-08 [9] Fortune — While Trump insisted the Iran war would end 'soon,' an account in his name was buying millions in oil, defense, and gold (https://fortune.com/2026/05/18/trump-stock-trading-iran-war-conflict-of-interest-ethics/) · 2026-05-18 [10] Reuters — Trump ethics filing reveals thousands of trades tied to US corporate securities (https://www.marketscreener.com/news/trump-ethics-filing-reveals-thousands-of-trades-tied-to-us-corporate-securities-ce7f5bddd18eff24) · 2026-05-15 [11] Yahoo Finance — Eric Trump says family assets (Q1 2026 filing and Palantir purchases) (https://finance.yahoo.com/markets/stocks/articles/eric-trump-says-family-assets-192500434.html) · 2026-05 [12] Sludge — Trump bought hundreds of stocks the day before he paused tariffs and sparked a historic rally (https://readsludge.com/2026/07/01/trump-bought-hundreds-of-stocks-the-day-before-he-paused-tariffs-and-sparked-a-historic-rally/) · 2026-07-01 [13] Mediaite — Trump made 327 stock purchases the day before he announced 'This is a great time to buy' and paused tariffs (https://www.mediaite.com/politics/trump/trump-made-327-stock-purchases-the-day-before-he-announced-this-is-a-great-time-to-buy-and-rolled-back-tariffs/) · 2026-07 Connections Related — 'Flood the zone': overwhelming courts, opposition, and the public Linked at the Author's direction as part of the broader pattern; it is not a sourced example of overwhelming courts or the public. Here, trades timed around announcements drew letters and probes but no reported charges, one of several matters competing for scrutiny. Related — Author's working thesis (not a sourced finding) The Author's thesis on insiders profiting alongside Trump, and on enforcement not following, is stated in this entry's perspectives; the working-thesis entry holds the broader interpretive read. Related — Contracts and payments to Trump allies: documented cases and the open question of no-work retainers (2025–2026) Both concern financial benefit flowing to Trump and people close to him, and the open question of whether oversight bodies will act. Related — DOJ/FBI handling of the Epstein files The Author's view that DOJ is unlikely to pursue the trading pattern against Trump's circle connects to how DOJ leadership has handled other matters touching the president; this link reflects the Author's editorial read, not a sourced finding. Same context — Hegseth's Pentagon undercounting/concealing US casualties in the Iran war Both concern accountability gaps around the same Iran war: who benefits from advance knowledge of announcements here, and an undercount of U.S. casualties there. Related — Himes' Sept. 2, 2026 House Financial Services speech: tariffs, deficits, labor, the Iran war and consumer sentiment Both concern how Trump's tariff and Iran war decisions move markets and the economy; Himes' speech covers the economic damage, this entry covers trades timed around the announcements. Same context — Iran war oil shock: record oil profits, higher prices for everyone else Same war and same oil market: this entry covers well-timed oil bets around Iran announcements, while the windfall entry covers the price shock and record oil-company profits. Same context — IRGC's Sept. 29, 2026 open letter to the American people The IRGC letter accuses Trump of timing war posts to profit from stock trades without offering evidence; this entry documents the timing of trades around his announcements and what is and is not established. Same context — Jared Kushner as U.S. special envoy: Affinity Partners' Gulf fundraising and Israeli war-linked holdings during the Iran war (2025-2026) Both concern people close to Trump with financial stakes around Iran war decisions, with questions about who knew what and when. Same actor — Military-industrial complex: Trump family ties to defense contracts Both concern the Trump family's financial interests intersecting with war policy: defense-contract ties there, market trades around war announcements here. Related — Synthesis: Big Oil's return on investment across the whole administration Both concern oil-market money around the administration's decisions: oil-industry returns on political investment there, well-timed oil bets around Iran announcements here. Same context — Trump Accounts: Treasury auto-enrolls 60M+ children; BNY and Robinhood picked after Trump stock purchases (2025-2026) Both rest on questions about trades in accounts in Trump's name; this entry covers the BNY and Robinhood purchases ahead of their Trump Accounts selection, and no source shows who directed them. Same context — Trump tariffs: legal overreach, economic cost, and access-based exemptions The April 2025 tariff pause that followed 327 stock purchases the day before was a reversal of the Liberation Day tariffs documented in this entry. Related — Trump's crypto ventures ($TRUMP, World Liberty Financial, USD1) and the Binance founder's pardon (2025-2026) Murphy's June 2026 speech lists both the crypto matters and the trades around the Iran announcements among his corruption allegations; the two entries share the theme of financial gain around presidential decisions.