CENTCOM says 97% of Hormuz transits get through unhit; new attacks and a mine dispute (update, Oct. 17-18, 2026) Case On Oct. 18, 2026 a CENTCOM spokesman said about 97% of vessels attempting to transit the Strait of Hormuz got through without being hit by an Iranian projectile, without giving data or a method. The same weekend UKMTO reported a new type of attack on a tanker, the IRGC said a supertanker hit a mine, and CENTCOM said it had cleared the mines. Update to the Oct. 16 entry on Adm. Brad Cooper's claim that the U.S. controls the strait. What CENTCOM said (Oct. 18, 2026) — claimed CENTCOM spokesman Navy Capt. Tim Hawkins told Fox News Digital that about 97% of vessels trying to transit the Strait of Hormuz got through without being hit by an Iranian projectile, and that the strait is "open" and "available for transit." The report is datelined Oct. 18, 2026. The report cites no dataset, log or report for the 97%, gives no total ship count, and does not say how ships that turned back or were delayed are treated. The wording suggests the figure counts vessels that were not struck, not vessels that completed their voyage. The same report restates Adm. Brad Cooper's figures, posted on CENTCOM's X account, of about 400 ships and over 100 million barrels of crude in seven days, also without a stated source. Independent and competing reports (Oct. 17-18, 2026) Documented: UKMTO reported at least 12 ships attacked in the week ending Oct. 16 and said it cannot count attacks accurately because most attacked vessels do not report to it. October has had the most ship attacks since the war began on Feb. 28, per Al Jazeera's summary. Of the 12 confirmed attacks, about half of the ships continued to their destination or reached port; one sank, two were disabled, and three were damaged or had unconfirmed outcomes. Documented: UKMTO reported on Oct. 17 a tanker hit by a rocket-propelled grenade fired from a small boat about 78 nautical miles northeast of Jubail, Saudi Arabia, a new type of attack. Documented in reporting: the container ship GFS Pride was hit on Oct. 15 and sank while being towed. The U.S. said an IRGC projectile hit it; Iran said it was a mine. Claimed: on Oct. 17 the IRGC said a supertanker carrying over two million barrels of crude caught fire after hitting a mine on an "unauthorised" route; Iran's Press TV showed footage of a fire. CENTCOM said it has cleared the strait of mines and that vessels are being hit by projectiles. Neither account is independently verified. UKMTO counted 125 outbound and 129 inbound transits in the past seven days, mostly dry bulk, then tanker products and general cargo, per Al Jazeera. Kpler put oil flows at 11.6 million barrels per day in the seven days to Oct. 13, about 68% of the 17.1 million bpd pre-war baseline. The Tribune's ANI report also cites a UKMTO weekly review counting 135 incidents in the strait during the conflict and does not reconcile that with the 97% figure. Al Jazeera reports Brent crude touched $110 a barrel on Oct. 16, its first time at that level since May. What the sources do and do not establish — inferred Inferred: a 97% "not struck" rate and UKMTO's counts measure different things, so they do not directly contradict each other. Without a total traffic count from CENTCOM, the 97% cannot be checked, and it says nothing about delays, turn-backs, or ships that avoided the strait. Inferred: with the U.S. and Iran each claiming control of the strait, and UKMTO saying most attacked vessels do not report to it, neither side's attack or transit numbers can currently be verified from public sources. Perspectives Official position — CENTCOM (Capt. Tim Hawkins; Adm. Brad Cooper) CENTCOM says the strait is open and controlled by the United States and its regional partners, that about 97% of vessels attempting to transit get through without being hit by an Iranian projectile, that the strait has been cleared of mines, and that the rise in attacks reflects IRGC desperation. Cooper cited about 400 ships and over 100 million barrels in a week. The U.S. also says its blockade of Iran's southern ports has cost Iran $25 billion in oil export income. Official position — Iran / IRGC The IRGC says the strait is unsafe for vessels that do not coordinate with its Persian Gulf Strait Authority, that a supertanker hit a mine on an unauthorised route on Oct. 17, and that the GFS Pride was hit by a mine, not a projectile. Iran has not released exact attack or transit figures and says Washington is exaggerating its numbers. Research notes Draft for The Author (site author) to review. Update to the published entry "CENTCOM commander says the U.S. controls the Strait of Hormuz" (id: centcom-commander-says-the-u-s-controls-the-strait-of-hormuz). Open items: the original Hawkins remarks to Fox News Digital were not read; this rests on the ANI report syndicated by The Tribune and on Al Jazeera. How the 97% is counted (the denominator and whether delays or turn-backs count) is unknown. UKMTO's Oct. 23 weekly should show whether the gap between its AIS-based transit counts and U.S.-stated numbers persists. Not used: a "reportedly" claim, with no named source, that Trump ordered the military ready for larger attacks after the Nov. 3 midterms. Brent crude touching $110 on Oct. 16 is reported by Al Jazeera; it was left out of the earlier entry because it could not be verified at the time. Note CENTCOM gives no dataset or method for the 97% figure and it counts only "not struck," not completed voyages; the IRGC disputes the U.S. account of the mine and projectile incidents, and neither side's claims are independently verified. Sources [1] The Tribune (ANI): US military claims Strait of Hormuz remains open, says 97% of ships transit safely despite Iranian strikes (https://www.tribuneindia.com/news/centcom/us-military-claims-strait-of-hormuz-remains-open-says-97-of-ships-transit-safely-despite-iranian-strikes) · 2026-10-18 [2] Al Jazeera: US and Iran both claim control of Strait of Hormuz amid attacks on vessels (https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2026/10/17/us-and-iran-both-claim-control-of-strait-of-hormuz-amid-attacks-on-vessels) · 2026-10-17 Connections Related — CENTCOM commander says the U.S. "controls" the Strait of Hormuz; UKMTO and Kpler data show traffic and oil flow well below pre-war (Oct. 16, 2026) Update: CENTCOM's Oct. 18 97% claim and the Oct. 17 incidents follow Adm. Cooper's Oct. 16 claim of U.S. control of the strait.